If you look at the trajectory of the software supply chain over the last few years, one thing becomes painfully clear: the old playbook is broken. For a decade, our industry has operated under the assumption that if we just hired enough people, bought enough scanners, and worked hard enough, we could reach a state of “perfect” security. We chased a clean dashboard with zero CVEs and a fortress-like perimeter.
But as we look toward 2026, that goal isn’t just difficult; it is mathematically impossible. We are facing a convergence of pressures that no amount of manual effort can withstand. The winners of the next era won’t be the ones with the cleanest reports. They will be the ones who have automated their compliance and built the engines to upgrade faster than the bad actors can attack.
To be honest, we don’t have a crystal ball. Nobody does. But we are trying our best to skate to where the puck is going. We want to share what we’re seeing so we can all navigate this shift together.
Reachability is not a silver bullet
For a long time, we pinned our hopes on “reachability.” The idea was simple: if a vulnerability isn’t reachable in the code, we don’t need to fix it. It was a triage strategy born of necessity.
However, the sheer volume of CVEs is growing out of control. Reachability is becoming a noisy, diminishing metric. It struggles to keep up with the flood. Reachability struggles with weakly typed languages like Python and Nodejs, which also happen to be two insanely popular languages. There’s also the problem of while you might not be using the code in question, can an attacker? The infosec world likes to call this “living off the land”. And there’s always the problem where someone starts using code that wasn’t used in the past, now you have a vulnerability that jumps out of nowhere unexpectedly.
We are moving toward a new metric: high velocity hygiene.
The question is shifting from “Is this vulnerable?” to “How fast can we upgrade?” We need to upgrade everything faster, not just the things with red flags attached to them. The goal is general hygiene across all of our code and dependencies. Technology that didn’t exist even a few years ago has come a long way to help us solve this problem. Hardened container images, vendored libraries, and automatic updates can make a gigantic difference. And of course vulnerability scanners that are fast and cover more ecosystems than ever before double check our work.
Supply chain attacks on steroids
Attacks will continue to rise because the fundamental incentives haven’t changed. Attackers still see many package repositories as prime targets, and every package repository is still struggling with resources. The rate of growth is not matching the rate of attacks. In fact, the attackers are about to get an upgrade.
We expect a significant increase in scale and sophistication as attackers leverage Large Language Models (LLMs). There is a distinct asymmetry at play here. Attackers have “zero red tape.” They can adopt new AI tools for exploitation immediately. We saw the start of this behavior with the Shai-Hulud attack in 2025.
Defenders, conversely, are slowed by procurement, legal reviews, and legacy infrastructure integration. This speed gap favors the adversary. While prevention is ideal, rapid response is the only viable reality for 2026.
EU CRA wake-up call
The industry is largely caught off guard regarding the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA). Later this year, (specifically; September 11) both vulnerability management and incident response will become law. As most deadlines work, the vast majority of organizations will start working on this around September 10.
This introduces strict reporting obligations (Article 14). Organizations must report actively exploited vulnerabilities and severe incidents to national authorities (CSIRTs) and ENISA within strict timelines.
Beyond reporting, SBOM requirements will be a critical part of this compliance landscape. You cannot report on what you do not know you have. Organizations will be forced to finally understand their software composition in depth, not as a “nice to have,” but to stay legal.
The inevitability of CompOps
“CompOps” (Compliance Operations) sounds like a buzzword nobody wants. Nobody likes compliance work. Also, it’s boring. But that is exactly why it will succeed.
As requirements mount, the only practical way to meet them is by applying DevOps principles to compliance. CompOps emerges as a survival mechanism. It is compliance that “just happens” through automation rather than a manual checklist. Most teams will start doing this by accident as compliance requirements get baked into the existing DevOps process.
We need to stop treating compliance as an annual audit event. It must be a continuous stream of evidence generated by the pipeline itself.
The state of open source in 2026
There will be more open source code than ever before. The graphs are still trending up exponentially.
We need to watch how major foundations like the Python Software Foundation (PSF), Apache, and Eclipse handle this pressure. They are facing the dual challenge of massive growth and new compliance requirements like the CRA demands on open source stewards.
The human element remains a serious risk. Developer burnout and funding are critical issues. We don’t yet know how far automation can take us in mitigating this, but the limit is being tested. We will be keeping an eye on the Sovereign Tech Agency in 2026.
Building the right boat
For too long, software supply chain security has relied on heroics. We relied on security engineers working late nights to triage thousands of CVEs. We relied on release managers scrambling to generate spreadsheets for auditors.
By 2026, that era must close. The sheer scale of the ecosystem means human heroism is no longer a scalable defense strategy.
We must build a system resilient by design. We need to treat the SBOM as a dynamic layer of observability. This allows teams to instantly query their entire software fleet to answer “where is X installed?”
Anchore helps organizations make this shift. We maintain open source tools like Syft (SBOM generation) and Grype (vulnerability scanning) to provide the data layer. For enterprises, the Anchore platform acts as the CompOps engine. It embeds “Policy-as-Code” directly into the CI/CD pipeline, enforcing rules automatically on every commit. This ensures you have the immediate, granular visibility needed to meet strict 24-hour incident reporting timelines without slowing down developers.
The outlook for 2026 isn’t about panic. It’s a “keep calm and carry on” moment. The flood waters are rising, but we are finally building the right boat.